Ballon d’Or 2024 Power Rankings and Antecedents of Front-runners

Ballon d’Or 2024 is upon us. One of football’s most prestigious individual awards, again, draws the attention of the world following the release of list of the final 30 nominees for the award this year.

The competition is as fierce as ever this year, with several stars staking genuine claim to the prize following a period of during which they have made their mark across all competitions for both club and country.

The absence of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in the list of the final 30 nominees for the Ballon D’Or was the highlight when the news broke out on Wednesday, 4th September. It was the first time neither has made the list since Cristiano Ronaldo first appeared in 2004, signaling a significant shift in football’s landscape​.

New competition has emerged, which makes a potential winner less predictive, and the award more exciting as a result. A definite fact is that a first time winner will be crowned on October 28, at the ceremony at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.

Among the new standout contenders are Real Madrid duo of Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Júnior. Their new teammate in Kylian Mbappé, who spent last season at PSG Paris Saint-German is also in the midst, albeit his chances are not as high as those of the aforementioned duo due to their UEFA Champions League title advantage, he is not any short on individual performance.

Rodri Hernandez of Manchester City is also a strong contender for the award while Lautaro Martinez is not left out of what will likely be a three to four horse race. You can see the list of all 30 nominees for the Ballon D’Or award here.

In the company of Hassan Afolabi, let’s delve into the antecedents of the front-runners of 2024 Ballon d’Or, while exploring their chances of one claiming the coveted prize at the expense of the others.

Ballon D’or 2024 : Antecedents of the front-runners

Taking the names of the five favourites in alphabetical order, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Lautaro Martinez, Rodrigo Hernandez and Vinicius Júnior in alphabetical order, here is an highlight of what each has put forward to aid their claim for the prestigious award.

1. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid and England)

Hoping to become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001, Jude Bellingham has done his chances a world of good since moving to Real Madrid at the start of the 2023-24 campaign.

Bellingham, left Borussia Dortmund as a 19-year-old to complete a £100 million move to the Spanish giants on the back of winning the Bundesliga Player of the season, albeit his Dortmund side fell short in their attempt to win the title on the final day of the season.

Bellingham was also recognized as the best midfielder of the year by ESPN, adding to other awards like International Federation of Football History & Statistics IFFHS Best young player award. He also featured in their team of the year, as well as Bundesliga team of the 2022-23 season.

The teenager hit the ground running in Spain despite the pressure of his price tag and debate over his chances of starting in a midfielder where he would compete with Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Federico Valverde and several others.

With the departure of Karim Benzema, Bellingham was deployed behind the duo of Vinicius Júnior and Rodrygo Goes, both who are wide players, which allows him to drift into the middle to occupy the No.9 position. Thanks to his tiredless workrate, he is able to play the role of a striker and a midfielder at the same time.

His performances in La Liga, Spanish Super Cup and the UEFA Champions League have been nothing short of sensational, scoring crucial goals and dictating play from midfield. Bellingham’s ability to combine defensive duties with attacking prowess has made him a complete midfielder, drawing comparisons to legendary Zinedine Zidane with his style.

He won the La Liga player of the month in August and September, and at the end of the season, after helping Real Madrid to their 36th league title with his 19 goals and six assists, Jude Bellingham was deservedly named La Liga Player of the Season.

In the UEFA Champions League, Bellingham was very impactful for Real Madrid. His five assists makes him the best playmaker of the competition while he also scored four goals, taking his goal involvements in the competition to nine, only bettered by two players, Harry Kane and Vinicius Júnior, both on ten each.

He assisted Real Madrid’s second goal in the 2-0 win over his former club Borussia Dortmund in the final. Bellingham was credited as the Best Young Player of the tournament by UEFA, while also taking a midfield place in the team of the year.

At the Spanish Super Cup tournament in Saudi Arabia, was phenomenon in the semi final win over Atletico Madrid, and went on to assist the opening goal as Los Blancos thrashed Barcelona 4-1 in the final to claim the trophy.

With 23 goals and 13 in his debut season for the club, which also produced three trophies, Jude Bellingham was named the player of the season, beating Vinicius Júnior to the award.

He was also not unimpressive with the national team during these period. He registered two goals and two assists for the Three Lions in five international games before the summer and in the UEFA European Championship, scored two goals and one assists as England reached the final of the tournament.

His goals were also very crucial for Gareth Southgate’s team. His first in Germany 2024 saw the edge Serbia 1-0 in their first game, which was their only win in three group games. His second and final came in the form of a 90+5th minute equalizer against Slovakia, which helped them force extra time before Harry Kane net the eventual winner in extra time.

Bellingham’s only assist came in the final game against Spain, to Cole Palmer to level matters before Mikel Oyarzabal won it for Spain later in the game. The assist means the 20-year-old assisted in all his final games for club and country since moving to Real Madrid.

The UEFA Champions League final, Spanish Super Cup final, UEFA European Championship final and the UEFA Super Cup final earlier this season, for Kylian Mbappé’s first goal for the club in a 2-0 win over Atalanta in Warszawa.

Finally, Jude Bellingham has won 16 player of the match awards since the start of last season, more than any other player in that period. His awards also came in important matches like El Clasico, ans the UEFA Super Cup final.

2. Kylian Mbappé (PSG Paris Saint-German, Real Madrid and France)

Kylian Mbappé, to some extent is high on the list. The Frenchman easily beat anyone on goal involvement, though it is understandable that only Martinez plays as a striker amongst the other front-runners. With 55 goals and 19 assists since the start of last season, he is the most productive player in Europe’s top five leagues.

Kylian Mbappé was the top scorer and the most valuable player in the Ligue 1, where he scored 27 goals and registered seven assists, making him the player with most goal contributions in the league. Mbappé was just one assist shy of the most in the French top-flight last term.

Kylian Mbappé was also the top scorer as well as top assist maker in the Coupe de France with eight goals and three assists respectively, helping PSG to the domestic double by winning the two major titles in France, adding to their Super Cup success at the start of the season, where he was also on target in a 2-0 win over Toulouse.

Joint top scorer of the UEFA Champions League last season, Mbappé reached the semi-finals before the shocking elimination in the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

With three trophies at PSG Paris Saint-German, he has added one more with Real Madrid, with the UEFA Super Cup, where he also scored on what was his Los Blancos debut in a 2-0 win over Atalanta in August. With that goal, he made it a goal in each of his three finals played since the start of last season.

For France, Mbappé has recorded astonishing numbers, scoring eight times and adding nine assist since the start of last season. Unfortunately, they could not go all the way in the European Championship as they were knocked out in the semi finals by eventual winners, Spain.

His season was amazing and he could have had a much stronger claim had he won at least either of the Euros or Champions League. Still, he’ll remain in the midst of the favourite, maybe not as heavy as some others, ahead of the announcement later next month.

3. Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan and Argentina)

At Inter, there were doubts over the commitment of Lautaro Martinez even though his contract at the club runs until the summer of 2026 before his latest extension. However, all was put to bed after just three games of the Serie A season.

Martinez started the season in explosive form. He scored five goals and one assists in the opening four games, helping the club to victory in all as they started to set the pace earlier on in their quest to win the league title.

At the end of the season, Inter won the Scuddetto for the 20th time and Martinez, who helped them to the title with his 26 goals in the competition emerged as the top scorer and claimed the Capocannoniere for the first time in his career, having been denied in the previous season, where he finished five goals behind winner Victor Osimhen.

In addition, Martinez was also named Serie A most valuable player in October, and won the Player of the year. Definitely, he was named in the team of the season.

Although Inter did not enjoy the best outing in the UEFA Champions League, it was Lautaro Martinez who scored their first goal, a late equalizer to earn a point away to Real Sociedad in Matchday one. His other goal of the tournament helped sealed a 1-0 win away to RB Salzburg, which ensured their passage into the knockout round.

The blemish on his narrative is that it was he who missed a decisive penalty in the shoot-out against Atletico Madrid in the round of 16, which ended their run in the competition. However, the Argetine make for that by scoring the lone winner against Napoli to win Inter the Italian Super Cup earlier in January.

Meanwhile during the season, Martinez was also turning his poor run with the Argentina national team into a thing of distant history. He scored off the bench against Costa Rica in the final international break before the summer to end his run of 16 games scoreless run with Albiceleste, which started in September 2022, extended to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, where he lost his starting spot in the team to Julian Alvarez.

With his Inter form and another brace against Guatemala in a pre Copa America friendly, Lautaro Martinez was able to convince Lionel Scaloni and regained his spot. He then became the first player to score in all three games of the group stage at a single Copa América tournament since Paulo Wanchope with Costa Rica and Víctor Hugo Aristizabal with Colombia in 2001.

His next goal would come as a substitute in the final. A 112th minute goal which was the only one produced in Miami Gardens, Florida, where Argentina were crowned champions at the expense of Colombia.

Lautaro Martinez won the Top scorer award with five goals. And if not for the sensational and unbelievable performance by James Rodriguez, who won the Player of the tournament, it would have also gone the way of the 27-year-old.

“The Ballon d’Or? For the season I had, I deserve to be where I am. Because I’ve worked a lot and suffered a lot in previous years. This is the second time in a row that I get to be at that ceremony. I believe I’m here to compete for it.” Said Martinez following his nomination for the award.

4. Rodrigo Hernandez (Manchester City and Spain)

Rodri has been nothing short of phenomenon in recent years. He played an important role in delivering Manchester City’s first-ever UEFA Champions League title, including netting the lone goal in the final win over Inter in 2022-23.

Last season, he continued in the same vein and even upgraded in his goal contributions, albeit it is never amongst his paramount responsibilities. A holding midfielder at one of the best clubs around, Rodri does his job expertly, and himself an integral part of the team despite playing in a position where you don’t get much highlights.

He started 2023-24 by starring in midfield and assisted Cole Palmer for the equalizing goal as Manchester City beat Sevilla on penalties to win the UEFA Super Cup, adding to the treble they won in the previous season.

In the first seven club games of the season, he had five goal involvement, before his unfortunate red card against Nottingham Forest in Premier League round six of games. In his absence, Pep Guardiola’s side fell to back-to-back defeats, bringing a premature end to their Carabao Cup campaign in that time.

His return for the Champions League trip to Leipzig marked their return to winning ways. However, he returned back to the sideline to serve his final suspension and again Manchester City lost to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in October. Three games without the Spaniard all ended in defeat for the Cityzens.

Rodri went on a run of 74 games unbeaten run for club and country, a feat which started in a 3-1 home win over Aston Villa in February 2023 and run until the final game of last season, when his Manchester City side fell to their city rivals, United, in the final of the Emirates FA Cup in Wembley.

He was named the best player as Manchester City won the FIFA Club World Cup earlier in the year. Despite being a holding midfielder, Rodri finished the season with nine goals and 13 assists across all club competitions, adding the Premier League title to his collective accolades.

He featured in both PFA Premier League and the Premier League Teams of the season before heading to the UEFA European Championship with Spain in the summer, where his claim to the Ballon d’Or award became genuine.

Rodri featured in six of Spain’s seven games en route to winning the title in Germany 2024, missing the final group game against Albania after recieving his second booking in the 1-0 win over Italy in their second game of the tournament.

He marked his return in the round of 16 with the equalizing goal as Spain came from behind to beat Georgia 4-1. In the final, he had to be taken off at half-time due to an injury but was back out to join in the celebration and receive his Player of the Tournament at full-time as Spain was crowned Champions after beating England.

5. Vinicius Júnior (Real Madrid and Brazil)

Huge favourite to claim the award according to several sources, Vinicius Júnior has come a long way despite his young age. Hence he is being tipped to take home the prize next month in Paris. And why not ?

The Brazilian is the face of the biggest club in the world, and to add to it, the said club is on the back of a season where it has won it all. Well, literally.

Vinicius Júnior has been a very consistent performer for Los Blancos and played his way to becoming a role model for upcoming player, despite being a young player himself. Remember those days when even his teammates doubted him ? Of course. But those have now become distant in memory.

The scene against Borussia Mönchengladbach in the UEFA Champions League, where Karim Benzema told Ferland Mendy not to pass to Vinícius Júnior because he was so underwhelming during the 2020-21 season. Since then, he has helped even the Frenchman to win the Ballon D’or award while scoring in two UEFA Champions League finals.

So to the main details of his claim to the Ballon d’Or award for 2024. The limitation to his performance an international level is the only flaw of Vinicius Júnior’s season, although between last summer and now, he has been able to score three goals for Brazil, which is more than the two he managed since his debut in February 2019.

The Copa America this summer was a bittersweet experience for the 24-year-old, who scored a brace in the second game of the tournament to help secure a 4-1 win over Paraguay, making up for the disappointment of their scoreless draw in the first game against Costa Rica.

Unfortunately, Vinicius picked up his second booking of the tournament in the one all draw with Colombia in their final group game, which saw him miss out of the quarter finals as Brazil bowed out to Uruguay on penalties.

However, the form of Vinicius Júnior at Real Madrid, even though he missed two months due to injury, was so good that a good percentage of football fans and pundits are tipping him to become the first Brazilian to win the award since Kaka in 2007.

The omen is positive for Vinicius as a Real Madrid player has always won the Ballon d’Or award in the year Lionel Messi had not won it, since the Argentine won his first in 2009. However, the fact that Jude Bellingham is also a Madridsta complicate things in this aspect.

In his 26 La Liga games, Vinicius was a constant threat for rival teams and scored 15 goals and five assists as Real Madrid won their 36th league title.In the Spanish Super Cup, Vinicius Júnior delivered a player of the match performance in the final with a hat-trick as Los Blancos thrashed Barcelona 4-1 to win the trophy for the 14th time, and their second in the last three seasons.

The biggest highlight of his season came in the UEFA Champions League, where he was awarded the player of the tournament after helping Real Madrid to the title at the start of June.

In his ten games in the competition, the winger registered as many goal involvement. When Madrid came up against Manchester City, the defending champions and the same team that knocked them out in the previous season in an humiliating fashion, Vini stood up for his team, and registered two assist to help them stay in the tie as City again threatened to run away with it.

He won the Player of the match awards in the two semi-final meetings with Bayern Munich, scoring a brace in the two all draw in Munich and delivered a masterclass in the second leg in Madrid, as the host staged a dramatic late comeback to win 2-1 thanks to substitute, Joselu Mato.

Vinicius Júnior, from a Jude Bellingham assist, scored Real Madrid’s second goal of the final in the win over Dortmund and deservedly won the player of the tournament award. He also registered an assist for the opening goal in the UEFA Super Cup final earlier in the season.

While all five players will convinced of their chances to win the award, there are a few others who are not so far behind, albeit they are not fancied by many, their season, mostly collectively could make them rival just anyone for any individual prize.

Daniel Carvajal is one of them. The Real Madrid and Spain right-back won it all for both club and country. Carvajal also scored the opening goal in the UEFA Champions League final, and picked up the Player of the match award at full-time.

He was a mainstay in the Real Madrid defence as they set a new club record for clean sheets in a single La Liga campaign with 21, surpassing the previous record of 19, set in 1987 and 1988. Carvajal also added 12 goal involvements from defence, six goals and as many assists across 41 club games.

Carvajal started the summer as Spain’s main right-back for the UEFA European Championship and scored his first international goal in their first game in the tournament, scoring the final goal just before the half-time break in a 3-0 win over Croatia.

He was rested for the final group game against Albania, got a red card for a double yellow in the quarter final win over Germany and missed the semi final against France before again returning in the final to help win the trophy.

Toni Kroos, now retired also had a mesmerizing final season as a professional before calling time on his career following Germany’s elimination in the quarter finals of the European Championship in the summer.

On the back of anchoring things in midfield with his rare passing range and precision, where he won the UEFA Champions League, La Liga and Spanish Super Cup titles, Toni Kroos helped Germany played their best game in the tournament before the loss to Spain.

Die Mannschaft had fallen to ruins before Kroos was seeked to come out of retirement ahead of the European Championship on home soil. Seven seconds into his first game upon return, he setup Florian Wirtz for the opening goal in a 2-0 win over France in March.

It was his first game for Germany since Euro 2020, and in it, the country ended a run of three winless. Germnay won six of eight games the midfielder played in on his short return, drawing and losing his final game, in the quarter finals against Spain.

Not at all famous for scoring goals, he scored just once all season and it came very early in the season, a consolation in a 3-1 loss to Atlético Madrid in La Liga. Coincidentally, that was the club’s only league loss last season. Kroos registered a total of 12 assists, which includes one for the opening goal of the UEFA Champions League final.

Balllon d’or 2024 power rankings

While 30 is a large number to rank players, there are those who standout amongst the rest and those have been mentioned above. The ranking is based on different categories and is it bound to be a very close one amongst the top three to five.

Nevertheless, Lautaro Martinez’s best placement as at now is fourth, although a more realistic rating places him fifth, behind Kylian Mbappé, who will be expected to drop a place to fourth from the previous year. Fourth and fifth between Mbappé and Martinez as things stand.

It is very unfortunate for Mbappé that players like Jude Bellingham and Rodri won the UEFA Champions League and the European Championship respectively, as failure might have placed him ahead of anyone currently considered above him, but that would only birth further competition as long as his PSG or France teams weren’t the winners.

The top three is a much tougher competition. Even as it appears Jude Bellingham is losing ground, the season performance can point to no other player more deserving of the prestigious prize this time around. His season towers above that of the rest.

Vinicius Júnior and Rodri are getting more shouts at the moment with the Brazilian expected to nick it. The wait is almost over and the trio will finally learn their fate. Nevertheless, whoever claimed the award will be very lucky as this can be said to be the most unpredictable edition, since the start of the 21st century.

In the same vein, others can count themselves as privileged to be considered a front-runner for the award, which is the best recognition a footballers can get in their career.

Who will you be rooting for to claim the Ballon d’Or 2024 ? Leave your thoughts in the comment section.

Hassan Afolabi