5 Reasons Real Madrid May Not Achieve A Comeback Against Arsenal

Optimism is a good mental attitude, but Real Madrid may be abusing it with the recent activities of the club, their players, media, and fans following their humiliating loss to Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final first leg meeting in London last week.

As Los Blancos prepare for a daunting second leg against the Gunners, the weight of history may not be enough to carry them through having fallen 3-0 at the Emirates a much better side.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side faces a vibrant Arsenal team that has matured into a genuine European force. The win at the Emirates was no fluke, it was a result of what has been building for years, and the Spanish giants may have met the end to their European journey this season.

For all Madrid’s pedigree, this tie presents unique challenges—ones that could either see them achieve another milestone or have their hopes of another famous European comeback fade under lights in their own Santiago Bernabeu stadium.

Wednesday will kickoff with Arsenal three goals ahead on aggregate and with Real still optimistic of staging another memorable comeback, we take a look at five reasons this may be farfetched, even for a club of Real Madrid’s pedigree in the competition.

5 Reason Real Madrid May Not Achieve Arsenal Comeback

1. Arsenal Was Very Much Better

Arsenal’s win at the Emirates was no mistake. It was a result of a dominant display and maybe the Gunners deserved to have established a far more superior lead.

It was like watching one of those two Clasico games this season. Only that this time, the contest is in the UEFA Champions League, one competition Los Blancos prides itself in. Men against boys you can call it. Arsenal registered 11 shots on target, the most Real Madrid has faced in a UCL knockout game in their history. The margin was that much wide.

Even the Real Madrid players conceded the fact that it could have been much more. Thibaut Courtois was a very busy man on the night, despite being beaten three times, the Belgian was the club’s best player by a mile.

To achieve a comeback, Carlo Ancelotti and his charge will first have to find a way to dominate Arsenal. Evident from what has been seen from the side this season, it would be difficult to overcome Arsenal in possession, as only then can they stand a chance to win.

Arsenal meanwhile has not three goals in any game across all competitions since November 2023, and have the second best defensive record so far in the UEFA Champions League, along with the fewest xG conceded.

Not many sides can dominate them (Arsenal) in possession when they need to keep it. PSG, the only side to have had just a fewer more percentage against them in the competition this season still stood no chance in a 2-0 defeat.

2. The Carlo Ancelotti Curse Looks Inevitable

In his 30 years in football management, Carlo Ancelotti has never won any same silverware in consecutive seasons.

While he has been privileged to work at some of the biggest clubs across Europe, PSG, Chelsea, Milan, Juventus, Bayern Munich and twice with Real Madrid whilst winning a lot of trophies, he hasn’t won the same in back-to-back seasons.

Being the defending champions of the UEFA Champions League, it appears his team has reached the end of the road and elimination in the hands of an English team has been the fate of Los Blancos in the previous three campaigns they’ve failed to win the trophy.

3. Real Madrid May Have Overestimated Themselves

Winning is not by right but by being better. Although luck and fate sometimes dictate otherwise on outcome of matches, yet, the inferior team has no bragging right when the deed hasn’t been done.

Right after the exhausting night in the Emirates, where they have just been taught harsh football lessons without any response whatsoever, Real Madrid, the club, the players, and their legends started a movement of staging a comeback in the return leg.

Real Madrid staging a comeback in the second leg against Arsenal became a thing all over the media throughout the week, with the club literally paying no attention to their LaLiga clash with Alaves, which they eventually won 1-0 on Sunday evening.

The likes of Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Kylian Mbappé, who were mere passengers over the course the 90 minutes believed they would overcome the three-goal deficit in the Bernabeu. This suggests they may be overestimating themselves.

The Real Madrid TV also shared the quote from 1985, where Juanito famously warned AC Milan, who had beaten Real 2-0 in San Siro before Los Blancos overturned the deficit to progress after a 3-0 win in the Bernabeu.

The quote says, “Ninety minutes in the Bernabeu is a very long time.” This has gained a lot of reactions in the media since Tuesday night and Arsenal, aware of this, will be even more prepared to avoid what would be a disastrous outcome.

When asked about a possible Real Madrid comeback in his pre-match interview ahead of the draw against Brentford during the weekend, Mikel Arteta responded by saying, “We have to be better than the first leg. We have to be focussed on what we can control.”

If Arsenal do get to control what they can control, then it’ll most likely be a long night for Real Madrid, who, then, wouldn’t get hold of enough possession, and will struggle without it.

4. Poor Head to Head Record Against Arsenal

Arsenal became the only side to face Real Madrid on three occasions and not lose in the UEFA Champions League after the victory on Tuesday night.

In fact, the Gunners has never concede against Real Madrid in their three meetings, where they have scored four goals of their own, won two, including a 1-0 victory thanks to a Theirry Henry’s lone goal in their only clash in the Santiago Bernabeu in 2006.

Even their female team had been eliminated by Arsenal in March, after leading 2-0 in the first leg only to get battered in the Emirates Stadium 3-0 in the reverse fixture, with Arsenal progressing to the semi-finals.

In addition, Arsenal has also not concede up to three goals in more than two years since doing so in an EFL Cup loss at West Ham United in November 2023, a game where Mikel Arteta made several alterations to give rest to regular starters.

5. A Mountain Los Blancos Has Never Overcome

‘If it is the history that makes them so boastful, then, maybe Madridstas do need reminding of their own history.‘

Real Madrid has never overcome a three-goal deficit in the UEFA Champions League. Although, renowned for their comeback heroics in the competition, it hasn’t gone beyond when they’ve been trailing by two goals in the first leg.

The record winners have attempted comebacks from 3+ goals deficit on three previous occasions, including once with arguably their best team in the modern era against Dortmund in 2013, but have ended up heartbroken each time.

In 1987, they lost 4-1 at Bayern Munich and their comeback attempt failed in the Bernabeu as they could only win by a lone goal. Much earlier in 1965 against Benfica, it was a four-goal deficit after a 5-1 loss in Lisbon. A 2-1 victory in Spain also condemned them to elimination.

The one against Dortmund saw them only won by 2-0, failing to overcome a 4-1 loss in Dortmund and exiting the Champions League in the semi-finals 4-3 on aggregate.

Real Madrid has not been at their best all season. Barcelona, Milan and of recent Valencia have all beaten them in the Bernabeu. As challenging as it is, it is not farfetched for Arsenal, on account of what was seen in the Emirates last week, to again come out on top in Spain.

They (Real Madrid) will have to score three times without conceding to equal the tie on aggregate. A defence that hadn’t kept a clean sheet in nine straight games before the 1-0 win over Alaves on Sunday will have it very difficult in doing so against Arsenal, who averages 2.5 goals per game, the second best ratio in the Champions League this season.

Conclusion

While one can not outrightly rule Real Madrid out of the contest, it is imperative to also understand what they will be up against. It’s Arsenal, a team that rarely concede when they don’t score themselves.

Out of all the eight teams still active in the UEFA Champions League, Mikel Arteta’s charge has the best defensive record since the turn of the year, conceding just 20 goals, which is one fewer than 21 for Barcelona and two fewer compared to Inter.

Closing the Bernabeu and creating a hostile atmosphere for their opponent may not be enough, because Real Madrid are in a very awkward position already, where they can not overly commit in attack because defence is where their opponent’s strength is, and they can not be too passive, because they have more than a deficit to overcome.

Too much talk about a potential comeback may also upset their chances after all, as there over excitement could turn into a weakness for their opponent to exploit.

While Real Madrid and fans continue to bask in the glory of their past conquest with the hopes of replicating it on Wednesday night at the highest, it may be safe to start taking the defeat as it already hit them.

Los Blancos and fans should be aware that the odds of them achieving a comeback is but flimsy, and to avoid a bitter heartbreak, should start to concede that the journey might be over, for real, and for Real.

Kehinde-Hassan Afolabi