The atmosphere in Stamford Bridge has never been so tense. Even after overcoming a two-goal deficit to rescue a point against relegation threatened Ipswich Town, there was nothing worth consolation at full time.
Then in mid-week, they suffered their first loss of the UEFA Conference League campaign in a 2-1 defeat to Poland outfit, Legia Waszawa in Stamford Bridge, although they still reached the semi finals thanks to a 3-0 first-leg win.
Chelsea, two-time winners could be set to miss out on another UEFA Champions League qualification, even as the Premier League is to have five entrants from league placement due to the extra slot earned on merit.
An absence, which could be on the horizon will see The Blues fail to qualify for the Europe premier competition for a third consecutive season, and for the first time since last doing so at the start of the 21st century, between 1999-00 and 2001-02.
That was just before Roman Abrahamovic took over the club. With the vision and commitment of their former Russian billionaire owner, these lows became a thing of distant memories. It would however appear that hurtful old memories have started to resurface since Abrahamovic departured in 2022.
What Are The Odds of UCL Qualification
Six games remaining before the season is concluded and it continues to look like Chelsea will drop out in the race. One can not be less convinced of this after the result against Ipswich Town on Sunday, and then Legia Waszawa on Thursday.
Of the club’s remaining league fixtures, Ipswich at home stood out as one the club would win convincingly, but after going two goals down, all that was left was saving their pride.
The chances of reaching the Champions League continues to get slimmer. Enzo Maresca and his charge have struggled against teams in the top half all season, and these are the contests that makeup of their remaining six games.
The only five wins in their last 15 league games have come against West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City, Southampton and Wolves, which makes five of the bottom six teams in the standing.
The Almost Impossible To Win Fixtures
Liverpool at home, Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest away, all teams above them in the standing, make up half of their remaining fixtures. Their poor Head to head record against these teams means an early worry for the West Londoners.
In addition, Chelsea could potentially give Liverpool a guard of honor as Premier League champions elect before the kickoff in a fixture they have remained without a win in the last eleven and haven’t won in the league at home since May 2018.
It was an Olivier Giroud’s header just after the half hour that gave Antonio Conte’s charge the win in what was the penultimate fixture of the league season, and no player on that squad is yet at today’s Chelsea.
The Blues has lost each of their previous three visits to Newcastle United across all competitions, including a 2-0 defeat earlier this season in an EFL Cup fourth round meeting back at the end of October.
Against Nottingham Forest, they have recorded just one win in five meetings since the West Bridgdford club returned to the topflight in 2022.
Both Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest are Chelsea’s direct rivals for the UEFA Champions League ticket, and those fixtures will directly influence their chances of making the cut.
Based on the odds, the meeting with Liverpool and Newcastle United look like lost battles, albeit they could still fancy their chances against Forest, who have lost their last two games (on the condition Nuno Santo failed to get it right again before their meeting).
The 50/50 Chance
Fulham achieved their first-ever away Premier League win over Chelsea when the two sides clashed at the end of December, thanks to two late goals to inspire a comeback victory.
The Cottagers will now have the chance to complete a first league double over their neighbors in their next game, in a bid to also keep their own European hopes alive. Yes, Fulham can still make it to the UEFA Champions League as things stand.
Marco Silva’s side are just seven points off a place in the top five and would look to take advantage of their home fixtures to increase their chances of a climax finish.
Even if a place in the Champions League is not so realistic, the Europa League or the Conference League will still be a great avenue to mark their return to Europe since 2009-10 campaign.
Yet, it is a game Chelsea could win if they play at their best, something they have failed to achieve on a consistent basis all season, even so not recently.
The fixture against Manchester United, one time the most standout in the English topflight will now happen with neither of the side competing for anything major in the league.
It has been the case in recent years as Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal have overtaken them in the league of the elites, hence fixtures involving the latter clubs have become more prominent.
Chelsea is slightly favoured as they will be at home and have been better than United this season. But the Red Devils have shown against other top sides like Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal, that they can not be ruled out against fellow top six teams.
The fact that the outcome of majority of their recent meetings have been stalemate also suggests the case may be the same. Which is why it is only fair that it places in the 50-50 chance.
Their Favoured Fixture
Everton have been unpredictable for the good reasons since David Moyes returned to the helm of affairs at the turn of the year, but playing at home, Chelsea is expected to come out on top.
Nothing is ever certain these days. The same Everton side held Arsenal to a draw and beat Nottingham Forest in the City Ground in the last weeks. One can say, Chelsea stands no chance against that.
Nevertheless, the Stamford Bridge landlords seems to always find their way when at home against the Toffees. They’ve only ever lost one Premier League home meeting with Everton, which came thanks to a Paul Rideout’s first-half header in a 1-0 scoreline in November 1994.
Since then, Chelsea has won 16 and drawn 13 at home to Everton in the league, staying unbeaten in 29 games. It is one of those fixtures they’ll always head into, as the favourite.
How Can Chelsea Qualify for the Champions League?
One Way: Mauricio Pochettino-Esque Finale
It is very simple. Mauricio Pochettino-esque finale. Strong finish like that of last season. Chelsea was able to overcome their record poor end to the season under the watch of Mauricio Pochettino, who himself didn’t have a great season.
The late surge, which saw them pick up 16 of possible 18 points by staying unbeaten in their final six games, winning the last five, ensured they secured European football for the ongoing season.
Although the fixtures are very much tougher this time, Enzo Maresca has to find his way around them because to play in the company of the best, beating the best is the best way to become worthy.
Can Chelsea Qualify for the Champions League?
Just over a month before the end of the season, it’s still a strong NO after they fell out of the top five following their failure to win against Ipswich on Sunday.
The business end of the season is always the toughest, with everyone pursuing climax finishes. For Chelsea, who shares the same vision as majority of their opponents (Champions League qualification), it is imperative to come out on top, or get toppled.
Kehinde-Hassan Afolabi
1 Comment
Naso we no go play UCL again